Could Donald Trump still win the US election 2020? If the incumbent president could get enough votes to beat Joe Biden

Donald Trump’s path to the White House is narrowing

On election night, with millions of votes still to be counted, incumbent president Donald Trump made the sensational and baseless claim that he had won the US Election.

On Thursday night (5 November) he doubled down on this claim, alleging voter fraud, calling for the vote counting to stop.

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Despite the current White House resident’s false claims, Joe Biden is the heavy favourite to win the US Election with momentum shifting in his favour in a few key swing states.

Trump made a speech littered with false claims on Thursday night (Getty Images)
Trump made a speech littered with false claims on Thursday night (Getty Images)

The decision to count mail-in voting last in purple states has seen what some have described as a “blue shift” in the Democrats’ favour due to the tendency of Joe Biden-supporting voters to vote before election day.

The race, however, is still too close to call, and the flustered 45th US President does still stand a slim chance of claiming victory in the 2020 US Election.

Could Donald Trump still win the US Election?

Of course – but his path to victory is now very narrow.

In order to reach 270 electoral college votes Mr Trump would need to clinch victory in three of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, as well as the vital swing state Pennsylvania.

Mr Biden faces far fewer obstacles in his path to victory. He requires wins in just two of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona to reach the magic 270 number. Alternatively he could seal his victory with a win in Pennsylvania.

How is the race looking in each state?


“Called” for Joe Biden by the right-wing news network Fox News, Mr Trump actually still has a chance of clinching the sun belt state.

The Democrat candidate currently holds a lead of over 46,000 there with ten percent of votes still to be counted, and Mr Trump has consistently been eating into Mr Biden’s lead.

CNN experts say that they did not call the state for the president as he “still very much has a pathway here.”

According to Action Network he stands a 25% chance of claiming the state.


The definition of a nail biter, Georgia could be decided by a matter of votes.

Mr Trump held a handsome victory in the state, but in the early hours of Friday morning Mr Biden took the lead.

As of 9.45am GMT Mr Biden’s lead is 917 votes, with the remaining votes to be counted coming from Democrat-leaning counties.


Joe Biden holds a slight lead in Nevada, though again the count looks set to be a nail-biter.

His lead is over 12,000 with 16% of the state's votes still to be counted.

The majority of votes still to be counted come are mail-in ballots from the heavily-Democratic Clark County, suggesting Biden is a clear favourite to claim victory.

North Carolina

The picture in North Carolina is rosier for Mr Trump. His lead is over 75,000 with just 6% of the state’s votes to count.

His lead will likely narrow,with mail-in votes likely to be in favour of Biden, but the Democrat’s path to victory in the state is razor thin.


Many forecasters said that Pennsylvania would be crucial in naming the winner in this election and this looks set to be the case.

Mr Trump romped into a lead in the Rust Belt state, but here, like in Wisconsin and Michigan, the blue shift has taken hold, with mail-in ballots overwhelmingly coming out in favour of Biden.

The incumbent president’s lead here is less than 20,000, but with tens of thousands of mail-in ballots from urban areas such as Philadelphia still to be counted, a victory for Biden in the state looks fairly inevitable.

What about lawsuits?

Mr Trump is of course threatening, and indeed launching, lawsuits in several states in order to have ballots thrown out due to baseless claims of fraudulent voting activity.

Despite launching lawsuits, Mr Trump’s legal team have been unable to present evidence of such activity, and as a result, lawsuits have already been dismissed by state judges.

Experts have cast doubt on the likelihood of Trump succeeding in any lawsuits.

“The hope is that these Hail Mary legal plays could lead to court intervention to throw out votes and help Trump capture one of these states. This is possible but very unlikely,“ UC Irvine law Professor Richard Hasen said on Wednesday.